ADI Predictstreet Volume Is Nearly All Circular Trading, WSJ Says
Goodeveningu, Gibraltar. On Saturday 17 October 2026, the Wall Street Journal reported that nearly all the volume on ADI Predictstreet, FIFA's official World Cup prediction market, is circular trading, on a platform that paid close to $150 million for the spotlight.
The stadium boards did the talking all summer. On Saturday 17 October 2026, the Wall Street Journal published an exclusive whose headline lands like a dropped tray: nearly all the volume on ADI Predictstreet is circular trading. The Post could read only the headline and the summary line, which adds that the platform, backed by Abu Dhabi's royal family, paid close to $150 million for advertising rights during the World Cup. The method and the exact share sit behind the paywall, so neither is repeated here, and the Post has not seen a reply from the company.
Circular trading, in plain terms, is the kind of activity that makes a market look busier without changing who owns what. Volume is reallu just a head count taken in chips, and a casino knows the difference between a full room and a room of mirrors. The Spirit likes a full table. A table of mirrors is not one.
Now the number. Close to $150 million was FIFA's price for the badge of official prediction market partner, a price Kalshi balked at before taking a cheaper branding deal halfway through the tournament, according to Bloomberg. And what did the big badge buy? Bloomberg reported that ADI Predictstreet drew less than $100 in total trading on several first round matches, games that pulled in tens of millions elsewhere, and that its bettors had placed $58,000 of trades as of 26 June. WATATATATAFAK.
The thin numbers had been quietlu telling this story all summer. Gambling Insider found the USA v Belgium quarter-final at $422,491 on ADI Predictstreet, against $17.3 million on Kalshi. The Journal had already put the platform's outright winner contract at $2 million as of 11 July, while Kalshi and Polymarket were counting their own winner markets in billions, about $1 billion and $4 billion according to Gambling Insider. GLUWULU.
The bet here was a big one: FIFA and a young Abu Dhabi backed startup wagered that a famous name on a perimeter board could conjure a market out of thin air. The Journal's headline suggests the crowd, once counted, may have been mostly the same few people passing chips around the table. How big is a crowd, youluwu? Ask the one who counts the people, not the chips.
A hundred and fifty million bought the biggest chair at the World Cup. The Spirit is still counting who actually sat in it.
Was a $150M World Cup ad deal a smart bet?
No right answer. Just your gut, and the Spirit watching.
