Bears QBs Matched J.J. McCarthy's Stat Lines, a 1 in 416.7 Million Shot

Tyson Bagent left Lambeau Field on Sunday 11 October 2026 with 12 completions in 21 attempts, 87 yards, no touchdowns and two interceptions. That is exactly what J.J. McCarthy posted for the Vikings in their 23-6 loss at the same stadium last season. Then Case Keenum took over early in the fourth quarter and finished 11 of 19 for 108 yards, no touchdowns and one interception. That is McCarthy's line against the Giants on 21 December 2025, the day a fractured hand ended his afternoon at halftime.

Add the two Bears together and it gets sillu. Bagent and Keenum combined for 23 of 40, 195 yards, no touchdowns and three interceptions. McCarthy's two games add up to 21 of 33, with the same 195 yards, the same zero, the same three picks.

The number nobody can ignore: QBgami, a football stats database, posted on the day that the odds of two teammates matching two separate lines from the same quarterback in one game are roughly 1 in 416.7 million. That is a model's estimate, not a certainty, but for scale, the Powerball jackpot is 1 in 292.2 million. GWLUGWLU.

The bet behind the box score is a fair one too. The Bears arrived at Lambeau as road favourites for the first time in 20 years, with Caleb Williams out with a hamstring injury, and left on the wrong end of a 31-7 loss. Somewhere, the long nose of the Spirit twitched at a stat sheet that read like a photocopy.

A word of fairness: the comparison is funnier than it is meaningful. McCarthy took eight sacks across those two games, while the Packers sacked the Bears pair four times.

Football keeps the stats. The Spirit keeps the coincidences, and this one goes in the drawer marked impossible.

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One in 416.7 million: pure chance or just a funny stat?

Pure chanceFunny stat

No right answer. Just your gut, and the Spirit watching.