Kalshi CEO Says States Fight Could Reach Supreme Court as Utah Sues

Tarek Mansour, Kalshi's co-founder and chief executive, told the Reuters Econ World podcast in Dublin that the clash between prediction markets and US states could eventually land before the Supreme Court. He kept it relaxed. The process, he suggested, will play out however it plays out. He declined to put odds on a Kalshi win if the justices take the case, but said the company is very confident in its legal position. A poker face, in other words, which is the right face for the occasion.

Here is the hand he is holding. Kalshi offers yes or no contracts on everything from who controls Congress after the midterms to who wins Dancing with the Stars, and dozens of states have taken legal action over the sports ones. The federal appeals courts have split. The Third Circuit ruled two to one on 6 April that New Jersey could not enforce its gambling laws against Kalshi. The Ninth Circuit reached the opposite conclusion on 28 August in a case brought by Nevada. New Jersey filed its petition to the Supreme Court on 2 September, the NFL filed a brief backing review on 8 October, and Kalshi's reply is due on 9 November. The justices have not agreed to hear anything yet. GASSSSITTTT, say the lawyers, billing by the hour.

Then came Utah. On Tuesday 20 October 2026, Attorney General Derek Brown filed a civil complaint in the state's Third District Court against Kalshi, its affiliates and two Susquehanna trading firms. The state wants an injunction and restitution, and estimates Kalshi collected between $30.6 million and $61.2 million in fees from Utah linked accounts. Those are the state's allegations and estimates, not findings of a court.

The number that makes you stop sits in the same filing. Citing outside data, the complaint says more than $319 billion had been bet on the platform over its lifetime through 19 October, $219.8 billion of it on sports. gluwululuu.

Kalshi is not standing still while the judges argue. Reuters reports its valuation has reached around $40 billion in a new funding round, according to people familiar with the matter, and Mansour says sports now bring in close to 65% of revenue, down from about 95% nine months ago. On the same Wednesday the company announced that some clients can borrow against bitcoin to fund margin on its perpetual futures, per Bloomberg. Apparentlu, the company is spreading its chips.

The bet underneath is simple. Kalshi has put its business on one reading of the law: that a single federal referee outranks dozens of state ones. The states have put everything on the opposite reading. Which would youluwu rather face, one referee or fifty?

The Supreme Court has nine chairs and, so far, not one has said a word. The Spirit is watching to see which way the first one leans.

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Will the Supreme Court agree to hear the Kalshi v. New Jersey case?

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Settles on 28 February 2027. Yes if the Supreme Court grants certiorari in Flaherty v. KalshiEX on or before 28 February 2027, No otherwise, according to the Supreme Court docket on that date.