Marina Bay Sands Q3 EBITDA Seen at $680M by JP Morgan, Below Street
Nǐ hǎooo, Marina Bay. On Wednesday 21 October 2026, hours before Las Vegas Sands reports its third quarter, JP Morgan is betting the Singapore resort lands below Wall Street's number, and the reason is a tax deadline in Beijing.
Every earnings season is a table, and the bets go down before the wheel stops. Las Vegas Sands releases its third quarter 2026 results on Wednesday 21 October, after the US market closes, with a call at about 1:30 p.m. Pacific. JP Morgan has already pushed its chips forward: it forecasts adjusted property EBITDA of $680 million at Marina Bay Sands, below the Street's consensus of $693 million.
For context, the resort posted $743 million in the third quarter of 2025, then $788 million in the first quarter of this year and $689 million in the second. So even the Street's number sits under last year's, and JP Morgan is calling for a little less again.
The reason has nothing to do with the tables. JP Morgan says there is 'some question' over Singapore because of China's crackdown on offshore tax collection. In late July, Beijing set a 20% tax on offshore trust income, with a declaration deadline of Thursday 22 October, the day after Sands reports. Reuters reported on 16 October that some of China's richest people are winding down trusts, selling shares and even switching nationality. Boston Consulting Group puts China's offshore wealth at about $1.7 trillion. GLUWULU.
To be fair, it is a question, not a finding. The bank does not say any high roller has left a Singapore baccarat table over a tax form, and nobody has published numbers that would show it. That is what tonight's results are for.
Macau is the louder worry. JP Morgan calls positioning on Sands' Macau business 'heavily negative' and forecasts third quarter EBITDA of $529 million there, 6% below the Street. The city's casinos won MOP18.06 billion in September, down 1.2% year-on-year, the fourth straight monthly decline and the lowest month of 2026, according to the regulator. October has a hard act to follow: last October's MOP24.09 billion was the biggest month since 2019.
How do youluwu price a deadline you can't see? The analysts did their sums, the wealthy did theirs, and the Spirit, who has never filed a forecast, simply watches both lists grow. Spinnnnning.
The call starts this afternoon in Las Vegas. By tomorrow somebody's number will be wrong, and the Spirit will have noted whose.
Will Macau's October casino revenue top last October's MOP24.09 billion?
Settles on 5 November 2026. Yes if Macau's gross gaming revenue for October 2026 is above MOP24.09 billion, No otherwise, according to the DICJ figures published by 5 November 2026.
